NEWS: Weekly PDF reports are now available in German and English language.


The aim of this project CoSim is the development of a mechanistic mathematical model to predict COVID-19 infections including hospital bed occupancy, intensive care unit (ICU), ventilation and death rates in the individual German states and the estimation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI, e.g. school closure) over time.

The model is intended to predict the further course of infections (including hospital occupancy, ICU, ventilation, death rates) and to simulate various possible scenarios (e.g. lifting of curfew).

The model and the predictions are fitted to current data at regular intervals (once a week). New forecasts for all federal states will be provided as PDF report.

This online platform is designed for information transfer and for the deployment
of a simulator (in progress).


Authors

Christiane Dings1, Katharina Götz1, Katharina Och1, Iryna Sihinevich1, Dr. Dominik Selzer1, Quirin Werthner1, Lukas Kovar1, Fatima Marok1, Christina Schräpel1, Laura Fuhr1, Denise Türk1, Hannah Britz1, Prof. Dr. Sigrun Smola2, Prof. Dr. Thomas Volk3, Prof. Dr. Sascha Kreuer3, Dr. Jürgen Rissland2, Prof. Dr. Thorsten Lehr1

1 Clinical Pharmacy, Saarland University, Germany
2 Institute of Virology, University Hospital of the Saarland, Germany
3 Department of Anaesthesiology, University Hospital of the Saarland, Germany