{"id":84,"date":"2020-05-07T02:03:08","date_gmt":"2020-05-07T00:03:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1\/test\/?page_id=84"},"modified":"2021-03-04T09:33:09","modified_gmt":"2021-03-04T08:33:09","slug":"model","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/en\/model\/","title":{"rendered":"Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The developed model is based on a classical <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_model\">SEIR model<\/a>, which in mathematical epidemiology describes the spread of infections within a population. In this classical model, an individual can pass through four disease-relevant states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><em>State <strong>S<\/strong><\/em>: Individuals who can be infected<\/li><li><em><em>State<\/em><\/em> <em><strong>E<\/strong><\/em>: Individuals who are infected, are infectious, but have not yet been identified as infected<\/li><li><em><em>State<\/em><\/em> <em><strong>I<\/strong><\/em>: Infected individuals<\/li><li><em><em>State<\/em><\/em> <em><strong>R<\/strong><\/em>: Recovered individuals.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The further developed <strong>SEIR\/D model<\/strong> describes more complex relationships. In addition to the states <strong><em>S<\/em><\/strong>, <em><strong>E<\/strong><\/em> and <strong><em>R<\/em><\/strong>, infected people are subdivided into<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><em><em>State<\/em><\/em> <em><strong>C<\/strong><\/em>: Infected individuals who remain ambulatory<\/li><li><em><em>State<\/em><\/em> <em><strong>KH<\/strong><\/em>: Infected in hospital<\/li><li><em><em>State<\/em><\/em> <em><strong>ICU<\/strong><\/em>: Infected in intensive care unit <\/li><li><em><em>State<\/em><\/em> <em><strong>ICU ventilated<\/strong><\/em>: Infected persons requiring mechanical ventilation<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, the model was extended by state<em><strong> D<\/strong><\/em>: Infected people who have died. Likewise, state <strong><em>R<\/em><\/strong> was subdivided into<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><em><em><em>State<\/em><\/em><\/em> <em> <strong>KH R<\/strong><\/em>: patients recovered during their stay in hospital and <\/li><li><em><em><em>State<\/em><\/em><\/em> <em><strong>R<\/strong><\/em>: recovered individuals outside the hospital<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"836\" src=\"https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/ModelScheme_English_2020_06_04-1-1024x836.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-281\" srcset=\"https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/ModelScheme_English_2020_06_04-1-1024x836.png 1024w, https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/ModelScheme_English_2020_06_04-1-300x245.png 300w, https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/ModelScheme_English_2020_06_04-1-768x627.png 768w, https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/ModelScheme_English_2020_06_04-1-1536x1253.png 1536w, https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/ModelScheme_English_2020_06_04-1.png 1930w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Figure 1: SEIR\/D Model &#8211; Model structure<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>People from state<strong><em> E<\/em><\/strong> infect people from state<strong><em> S<\/em><\/strong>. The factor R0 (<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Basic_reproduction_number\">basic reproduction number<\/a>) indicates how many people from state <em><strong>S<\/strong><\/em> are infected on average by a single person from state <strong><em>E<\/em><\/strong>. Infected people in state <em><strong>E<\/strong><\/em> are only identified as infected after a certain time (gamma) and thus reach state<strong><em> C<\/em><\/strong> (cases = confirmed cases). Infected persons (<em><strong>C<\/strong><\/em>) can either be recovered on an outpatient basis (<strong><em>R<\/em><\/strong>) or admitted to hospital (<em><strong>KH<\/strong><\/em>). Inpatients can recover in hospital (<em><strong>KH R<\/strong><\/em>), die in hospital (<strong><em>D<\/em><\/strong>: Death) or be transferred to intensive care (<em><strong>ICU<\/strong><\/em>). Infected patients in intensive care units (<strong><em>ICU<\/em><\/strong>) can also recover (<em><strong>KH R<\/strong><\/em>), die (<strong><em>D<\/em><\/strong>) or require mechanical ventilation (<strong><em>ICU ventilated<\/em><\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The model structure with the different states as well as their transitions is shown in Fig. 1 The given data (length of stay, percentage share, ventilation, etc.) originate from hospital data of more than 30,000 German COVID-19 patients of more than 250 hospitals, which were derived anonymously from the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.metait.de\/metakis\" target=\"_blank\">MetaKIS<\/a> system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The developed model is based on a classical SEIR model, which in mathematical epidemiology describes the spread of infections within a population. In this classical model, an individual can pass through four disease-relevant states: State S: Individuals who can be infected State E: Individuals who are infected, are infectious, but have not yet been identified &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/en\/model\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Model<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"2.12.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["de","en"],"languages":{"de":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false}}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Model &#8211; COVID-19 Simulator<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/covid-simulator.com\/model\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Model &#8211; 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