CoSim

Online COVID-19 Simulator


Current model version: 1012R
Current data from: 22.09.2020
Current appliction version: 1.2

What it does

This simulator is a interactive tool to explore the situation regarding the current Covid-19 epidemic in the context of Germany as well as potential repercussions of potential changes for the future.
The simulations are based on the modified SEIRD-Models (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered– Death) developed by this working group. The modeles utilize Non-Linear-Mixed-Effects-Modeling to describe and predict a variety of groups and stages relevant to the state of this pandemic as well as the German healthcare system in general. These models rely on several datasources for its descriptive and predictiv performance including Johns Hopkins University, WHO, CDC, ECDC, Robert-Koch-Institute, the Berlin Morgenpost and others.
Both, data and the models are updated and refined on a biweekly basis. Additional model descriptions can be found in the reports on this website.

How to Use

  1. Press Simulator on the left-hand sidebar
  2. Choose either Germany or a German State that piques yor interest
  3. Select a Start and endpoint for the time frame of your interest
  4. If you press Plotting Categories you can mix and match the data that you want displayed
  5. Press Plotting Options to choose further graphing options and/or include additional information
    1. With Log-scale you can switch between linear or logarthmic scale
    2. The Observations button shows or hides observations on which the model is based. In the plots they take the form of points
    3. The Show R(t) button adds a Line showing major changes is the R(t) value over time
    4. Show ICU Capacity [beds] adds a dotted line visualizing the maximal amount of ICU beds available in each State
    5. Pressing Custom R(t) gives you the option to simulate with a custom R(t) value from the time of your choosing to see how each state would fare with more or less new infections
  6. With ICU Capacity [beds] you can input a custom amount of ICU beds for each state to see where and when the capabilities of States might be reached
  7. Finally press the Simulate button to start the simulation
  8. Important! After each change to the selection the Simulate button has to be pressed again to apply the changes

The Authors

Christiane Dings1, Katharina Götz1, Katharina Och1, Iryna Sihinevich1, Dr. Dominik Selzer1, Quirin Werthner1, Lukas Kovar1, Fatima Marok1, Christina Schräpel1, Laura Fuhr1, Denise Türk1, Hannah Britz1, Prof. Dr. Sigrun Smola2, Prof. Dr. Thomas Volk3, Prof. Dr. Sascha Kreuer3, Dr. Jürgen Rissland2, Prof. Dr. Thorsten Lehr1

1 Clinical Pharmacy, Saarland University, Germany
2 Institute of Virology, University Hospital of the Saarland, Germany
3 Department of Anaesthesiology, University Hospital of the Saarland, Germany


The online simulator was developed by Quirin Werthner, Iryna Sihinevich, Katharina Och, Katharina Götz, Christiane Dings, Dr. Dominik Selzer and Prof. Dr. Thorsten Lehr.

Agreement

This website and its contents herein, including all data and analysis are provided to the public strictly for educational and academic research purposes. Reliance on the Website for medical guidance or use of the Website in commerce is strictly prohibited.

Changelog


Current model version: 1012R
Current data from: 22.09.2020
Current appliction version: 1.2

September 23th 2020 - Data Update

Updated observed data from September 22th 2020.

September 10th 2020 - Data Update & Version 1.2

- Updated observed data from September 09th 2020.
- Fixed an UI bug for ICU cap (beds) that was displayed when ICU cap display option was not enabled.

September 1st 2020 - Version 1.1

Fixed a bug where the last R(t) for non-custom R(t) was set to R(t-1).

August 27th 2020 - Data Update

Updated observed data from August 26th 2020.

August 18th 2020 - Version 1.0

Initial release

Cases (Culmulative)

Hospitalized (Cumulative)

Cases (Daily)

Hospitalized (Acute)